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Midterms 2026 / Races
Election desk · 2026

Every race on the board

The dashboard shows the closest handful. This is the whole board: every 2026 Senate contest and governorship, plus all 435 U.S. House districts. Every contest has its own page. Averages use qualifying nonpartisan polls from the last 180 days; missing data is labeled explicitly.

U.S. Senate27of 35 contests
Governor31of 36 contests
U.S. House58of 435 districts
Race by race

U.S. Senate

Closest polled races first
  1. IowaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Joni Ernst (R) is not running
    Ashley Hinson (R)45.9
    JTJosh Turek (D)45.6
    Even12 polls →
  2. South CarolinaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Darline Graham Nordone (R)
    Darline Graham (R)47.2
    AAAnnie Andrews (D)46.1
    R +1.14 polls →
  3. AlaskaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Dan Sullivan (R)
    Mary Peltola (D)49.3
    Dan Sullivan (R)48.0
    D +1.36 polls →
  4. NebraskaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Pete Ricketts (R)
    Pete Ricketts (R)48.5
    DODan Osborn46.5
    R +2.02 polls →
  5. MinnesotaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Tina Smith (D) is not running
    PFPeggy Flanagan (D)47.2
    MTMichele Tafoya (R)44.5
    D +2.75 polls →
  6. TexasU.S. SenateOpen seat — John Cornyn (R) is not running
    James Talarico (D)49.4
    Ken Paxton (R)46.1
    D +3.312 polls →
  7. MaineU.S. SenateIncumbent: Susan Collins (R)
    Troy Jackson (D)50.0
    Susan Collins (R)46.3
    D +3.712 polls →
  8. OhioU.S. SenateIncumbent: Jon Husted (R)
    Sherrod Brown (D)48.3
    Jon Husted (R)44.4
    D +3.912 polls →
  9. MississippiU.S. SenateIncumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
    Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)52.0
    SCScott Colom (D)48.0
    R +4.01 poll →
  10. IdahoU.S. SenateIncumbent: Jim Risch (R)
    Jim Risch (R)34.0
    Todd Achilles30.0
    R +4.01 poll →
  11. KansasU.S. SenateIncumbent: Roger Marshall (R)
    AHAdam Hamilton (D)49.5
    Roger Marshall (R)45.4
    D +4.17 polls →
  12. MichiganU.S. SenateOpen seat — Gary Peters (D) is not running
    Abdul El-Sayed (D)49.9
    Mike Rogers (R)45.4
    D +4.512 polls →
  13. FloridaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Ashley Moody (R)
    Ashley Moody (R)49.8
    Angie Nixon (D)43.6
    R +6.210 polls →
  14. New HampshireU.S. SenateOpen seat — Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not running
    Chris Pappas (D)49.7
    John Sununu (R)42.0
    D +7.76 polls →
  15. GeorgiaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Jon Ossoff (D)
    Jon Ossoff (D)52.7
    Mike Collins (R)43.5
    D +9.210 polls →
  16. North CarolinaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Thom Tillis (R) is not running
    Roy Cooper (D)52.5
    Michael Whatley (R)41.4
    D +11.112 polls →
  17. IllinoisU.S. SenateOpen seat — Dick Durbin (D) is not running
    JSJuliana Stratton (D)55.6
    DTDon Tracy (R)44.4
    D +11.21 poll →
  18. ArkansasU.S. SenateIncumbent: Tom Cotton (R)
    Tom Cotton (R)50.7
    Hallie Shoffner (D)38.7
    R +12.03 polls →
  19. ColoradoU.S. SenateIncumbent: John Hickenlooper (D)
    John Hickenlooper (D)52.0
    MBMark Baisley (R)38.0
    D +14.01 poll →
  20. AlabamaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Tommy Tuberville (R) is not running
    Barry Moore (R)50.3
    EWEverett Wess (D)35.5
    R +14.84 polls →
  21. VirginiaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Mark Warner (D)
    Mark Warner (D)48.0
    Bert Mizusawa (R)32.0
    D +16.01 poll →
  22. South DakotaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Mike Rounds (R)
    Mike Rounds (R)55.0
    BBBrian Bengs38.7
    R +16.33 polls →
  23. New MexicoU.S. SenateIncumbent: Ben Ray Luján (D)
    Ben Ray Luján (D)53.5
    LMLarry Marker (R)37.0
    D +16.52 polls →
  24. MontanaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Steve Daines (R) is not running
    Kurt Alme (R)43.1
    ABAlani Bankhead (D)24.9
    R +18.27 polls →
  25. TennesseeU.S. SenateIncumbent: Bill Hagerty (R)
    Bill Hagerty (R)51.0
    MBMarquita Bradshaw (D)31.0
    R +20.01 poll →
  26. MassachusettsU.S. SenateIncumbent: Ed Markey (D)
    Ed Markey (D)55.2
    John Deaton (R)29.0
    D +26.25 polls →
  27. Rhode IslandU.S. SenateIncumbent: Jack Reed (D)
    Jack Reed (D)59.0
    RMRaymond McKay (R)32.0
    D +27.02 polls →

Also on the ballot — no qualifying poll in 180 days

  • Delaware →Incumbent: Chris Coons (D)Primary not yet held (Sept. 15). Coons faces minor Democratic primary opposition; Mike Katz and John Shulli are competing for the Republican nomination.
  • Kentucky →Open seat — Mitch McConnell (R) is not runningMcConnell is retiring after seven terms. Rep. Andy Barr won the May 19 GOP primary with Trump's endorsement after Nate Morris exited; 2022 nominee Charles Booker leads the Democratic ticket again.
  • Louisiana →Open seat — Bill Cassidy (R) is not runningCassidy sought re-election but finished third in the May 16 primary under Louisiana's new closed-primary system; Rep. Julia Letlow, backed by Trump, won the June 27 GOP runoff over John Fleming. Farmer Jamie Davis is the Democratic nominee.
  • New Jersey →Incumbent: Cory Booker (D)Booker was unopposed in the June 2 primary; attorney Justin Murphy won a four-way Republican primary.
  • Oklahoma →Open seat — Alan Armstrong (R) is not runningMarkwayne Mullin resigned in March 2026 to become homeland security secretary; appointee Alan Armstrong is barred by state law from running. Rep. Kevin Hern (Trump-endorsed) faces N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, a nurse who won the Aug. 25 Democratic runoff.
  • Oregon →Incumbent: Jeff Merkley (D)Merkley seeks a fourth term; state legislator David Brock Smith emerged from a seven-way GOP primary on May 19.
  • West Virginia →Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito (R)Capito won the May 12 closed GOP primary over state Sen. Tom Willis; former Morgantown councilwoman Rachel Fetty Anderson won the Democratic primary.
  • Wyoming →Open seat — Cynthia Lummis (R) is not runningLummis is retiring after one term. Rep. Harriet Hageman won the Aug. 18 GOP primary with about 63%; former state Rep. James Byrd is the Democratic nominee.
Race by race

Governor

Closest polled races first
  1. GeorgiaGovernorOpen seat — Brian Kemp (R) is not running
    Rick Jackson (R)48.0
    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)47.9
    Even10 polls →
  2. KansasGovernorOpen seat — Laura Kelly (D) is not running
    TMTy Masterson (R)49.1
    CHCindy Holscher (D)48.2
    R +0.97 polls →
  3. NevadaGovernorIncumbent: Joe Lombardo (R)
    AFAaron Ford (D)43.4
    Joe Lombardo (R)41.7
    D +1.73 polls →
  4. OregonGovernorIncumbent: Tina Kotek (D)
    Tina Kotek (D)46.0
    Christine Drazan (R)44.0
    D +2.01 poll →
  5. TexasGovernorIncumbent: Greg Abbott (R)
    Greg Abbott (R)49.3
    Gina Hinojosa (D)46.9
    R +2.412 polls →
  6. VermontGovernorIncumbent: Phil Scott (R)
    Amanda Janoo (D)48.5
    Phil Scott (R)46.0
    D +2.52 polls →
  7. WisconsinGovernorOpen seat — Tony Evers (D) is not running
    David Crowley (D)47.7
    Tom Tiffany (R)44.3
    D +3.43 polls →
  8. OhioGovernorOpen seat — Mike DeWine (R) is not running
    Amy Acton (D)49.2
    Vivek Ramaswamy (R)44.9
    D +4.312 polls →
  9. FloridaGovernorOpen seat — Ron DeSantis (R) is not running
    Byron Donalds (R)48.8
    David Jolly (D)44.5
    R +4.310 polls →
  10. NebraskaGovernorIncumbent: Jim Pillen (R)
    Jim Pillen (R)48.0
    LWLynne Walz (D)42.7
    R +5.33 polls →
  11. IowaGovernorOpen seat — Kim Reynolds (R) is not running
    Rob Sand (D)51.1
    Zach Lahn (R)44.4
    D +6.711 polls →
  12. AlabamaGovernorOpen seat — Kay Ivey (R) is not running
    Tommy Tuberville (R)49.3
    Doug Jones (D)41.7
    R +7.63 polls →
  13. AlaskaGovernorOpen seat — Mike Dunleavy (R) is not running
    JKJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)53.9
    BWBernadette Wilson (R)46.2
    D +7.74 polls →
  14. MichiganGovernorOpen seat — Gretchen Whitmer (D) is not running
    Jocelyn Benson (D)50.7
    John James (R)42.8
    D +7.912 polls →
  15. ArizonaGovernorIncumbent: Katie Hobbs (D)
    Katie Hobbs (D)49.0
    Andy Biggs (R)40.5
    D +8.511 polls →
  16. MinnesotaGovernorOpen seat — Tim Walz (D) is not running
    Amy Klobuchar (D)50.2
    Lisa Demuth (R)41.2
    D +9.05 polls →
  17. South CarolinaGovernorOpen seat — Henry McMaster (R) is not running
    AWAlan Wilson (R)50.8
    JJJermaine Johnson (D)41.7
    R +9.12 polls →
  18. New HampshireGovernorIncumbent: Kelly Ayotte (R)
    Kelly Ayotte (R)50.3
    CWCinde Warmington (D)40.8
    R +9.56 polls →
  19. MaineGovernorOpen seat — Janet Mills (D) is not running
    Hannah Pingree (D)50.0
    BCBobby Charles (R)39.5
    D +10.512 polls →
  20. TennesseeGovernorOpen seat — Bill Lee (R) is not running
    Marsha Blackburn (R)45.0
    Jerri Green (D)32.5
    R +12.52 polls →
  21. New YorkGovernorIncumbent: Kathy Hochul (D)
    Kathy Hochul (D)50.1
    BBBruce Blakeman (R)35.8
    D +14.37 polls →
  22. ColoradoGovernorOpen seat — Jared Polis (D) is not running
    PWPhil Weiser (D)51.0
    VMVictor Marx (R)36.0
    D +15.01 poll →
  23. Rhode IslandGovernorIncumbent: Dan McKee (D)
    HFHelena Foulkes (D)47.0
    KBKen Block31.0
    D +16.02 polls →
  24. New MexicoGovernorOpen seat — Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is not running
    Deb Haaland (D)41.0
    GHGreg Hull (R)24.0
    D +17.01 poll →
  25. IllinoisGovernorIncumbent: JB Pritzker (D)
    JB Pritzker (D)58.7
    DBDarren Bailey (R)41.3
    D +17.41 poll →
  26. ConnecticutGovernorIncumbent: Ned Lamont (D)
    Ned Lamont (D)55.3
    Ryan Fazio (R)36.8
    D +18.55 polls →
  27. South DakotaGovernorIncumbent: Larry Rhoden (R)
    Larry Rhoden (R)60.0
    DADan Ahlers (D)41.0
    R +19.01 poll →
  28. PennsylvaniaGovernorIncumbent: Josh Shapiro (D)
    Josh Shapiro (D)53.6
    SGStacy Garrity (R)31.8
    D +21.87 polls →
  29. MassachusettsGovernorIncumbent: Maura Healey (D)
    Maura Healy55.8
    MMMichael Minogue (R)32.6
    Healy +23.25 polls →
  30. CaliforniaGovernorOpen seat — Gavin Newsom (D) is not running
    Xavier Becerra (D)58.4
    Steve Hilton (R)34.0
    D +24.45 polls →
  31. MarylandGovernorIncumbent: Wes Moore (D)
    Wes Moore (D)51.0
    DCDan Cox (R)24.0
    D +27.01 poll →

Also on the ballot — no qualifying poll in 180 days

  • Arkansas →Incumbent: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)Sanders was unopposed for renomination; state Sen. Fredrick Love won the March 3 Democratic primary.
  • Hawaii →Incumbent: Josh Green (D)Green won the Aug. 8 primary with about 89%; contractor Gary Cordery is the GOP nominee.
  • Idaho →Incumbent: Brad Little (R)Little, seeking a third term, won his May 19 primary with 59%; attorney Terri Pickens won the Democratic race.
  • Oklahoma →Open seat — Kevin Stitt (R) is not runningOpen seat: Trump-backed former state Sen. Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond by roughly 2,000 votes in the Aug. 25 GOP runoff; state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson is the Democratic nominee.
  • Wyoming →Open seat — Mark Gordon (R) is not runningOpen seat: state Sen. Eric Barlow beat Trump-endorsed Megan Degenfelder in the Aug. 18 GOP primary; Kenneth Casner was the lone Democrat to file.
Race by race

U.S. House districts

District polling is sparse — qualifying polls in our feed
  1. AR-02House · AR-02
    French Hill48.0
    Chris Jones48.0
    Even2 polls →
  2. FL-22House · FL-22
    CACasey Askar (R)50.0
    PDPia Dandiya (D)50.0
    Even1 poll →
  3. WA-03House · WA-03
    JBJohn Braun48.0
    Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)47.0
    Braun +1.01 poll →
  4. NY-17House · NY-17
    Mike Lawler48.0
    Cait Conley (D)46.5
    Lawler +1.52 polls →
  5. NY-21House · NY-21
    ACAnthony Constantino44.7
    BGBlake Gendebien43.0
    Constantino +1.73 polls →
  6. MO-02House · MO-02
    FWFred Wellman46.5
    Ann Wagner (R)44.5
    Wellman +2.02 polls →
  7. AL-02House · AL-02
    RMRhett Marques48.0
    Shomari Figures (D)46.0
    Marques +2.01 poll →
  8. TX-35House · TX-35
    JGJohnny Garcia51.0
    CDCarlos De La Cruz49.0
    Garcia +2.01 poll →
  9. AZ-02House · AZ-02
    JNJonathan Nez50.0
    ECEli Crane48.0
    Nez +2.01 poll →
  10. MN-01House · MN-01
    JJJake Johnson46.0
    Brad Finstad (R)44.0
    Johnson +2.01 poll →
  11. IN-05House · IN-05
    Victoria Spartz (R)47.4
    JFJD Ford44.6
    R +2.81 poll →
  12. IA-02House · IA-02
    LJLindsay James (D)50.0
    JMJoe Mitchell (R)47.0
    D +3.01 poll →
  13. PA-10House · PA-10
    JSJanelle Stelson47.0
    Scott Perry (R)44.0
    Stelson +3.01 poll →
  14. NM-02House · NM-02
    Gabe Vasquez (D)46.0
    GCGreg Cunningham43.0
    D +3.01 poll →
  15. OH-01House · OH-01
    Greg Landsman (D)47.9
    ECEric Conroy44.6
    D +3.31 poll →
  16. AZ-01House · AZ-01
    ASAmish Shah46.7
    JFJay Feely43.3
    Shah +3.42 polls →
  17. PA-08House · PA-08
    PCPaige Cognetti (D)52.0
    Rob Bresnahan48.0
    D +4.01 poll →
  18. VA-01House · VA-01
    STShannon Taylor (D)50.0
    Rob Wittman46.0
    D +4.01 poll →
  19. NE-01House · NE-01
    Mike Flood (R)45.0
    CBChris Backemeyer40.5
    R +4.52 polls →
  20. TX-34House · TX-34
    Vicente Gonzalez (D)47.5
    EFEric Flores (R)42.5
    D +5.02 polls →
  21. ME-02House · ME-02
    PLPaul LePage52.0
    MDMatt Dunlap47.0
    LePage +5.01 poll →
  22. FL-14House · FL-14
    Kathy Castor (D)48.0
    MBMike Beltran (R)43.0
    D +5.01 poll →
  23. VA-05House · VA-05
    John McGuire51.0
    TPTom Perriello46.0
    McGuire +5.01 poll →
  24. UT-02House · UT-02
    Blake Moore39.0
    PCPeter Crosby34.0
    Moore +5.01 poll →
  25. CO-04House · CO-04
    Lauren Boebert (R)45.0
    ELEileen Laubacher40.0
    R +5.01 poll →
  26. IA-01House · IA-01
    CBChristina Bohannan40.0
    Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)35.0
    Bohannan +5.01 poll →
  27. PA-07House · PA-07
    BBBob Brooks47.0
    Ryan Mackenzie (R)41.5
    Brooks +5.52 polls →
  28. CA-34House · CA-34
    AGAngela Gonzales-Torres51.0
    Jimmy Gomez (D)45.0
    Gonzales-Torres +6.01 poll →
  29. MT-01House · MT-01
    SFSam Forstag (D)48.1
    AFAaron Flint (R)41.3
    D +6.83 polls →
  30. CA-11House · CA-11
    SWScott Wiener51.0
    CCConnie Chan44.0
    Wiener +7.01 poll →
  31. TX-15House · TX-15
    BPBobby Pulido (D)51.0
    Monica De La Cruz (R)44.0
    D +7.01 poll →
  32. AK-01House · AK-01
    Nick Begich52.2
    BHBill Hill45.1
    Begich +7.15 polls →
  33. CA-06House · CA-06
    Richard Pan47.0
    Kevin Kiley (I)39.0
    Pan +8.02 polls →
  34. NE-02House · NE-02
    DPDenise Powell48.0
    BHBrinker Harding40.0
    Powell +8.02 polls →
  35. MI-07House · MI-07
    WLWilliam Lawrence (D)53.0
    Tom Barrett (R)45.0
    D +8.01 poll →
  36. OH-07House · OH-07
    BPBrian Poindexter (D)54.0
    Max Miller46.0
    D +8.01 poll →
  37. FL-13House · FL-13
    Anna Paulina Luna (R)49.0
    LGLeela Gray41.0
    R +8.01 poll →
  38. NH-01House · NH-01
    SSStefany Shaheen51.0
    ADAnthony DiLorenzo42.5
    Shaheen +8.52 polls →
  39. CA-48House · CA-48
    Marni von Wilpert49.5
    Jim Desmond41.0
    Wilpert +8.52 polls →
  40. UT-04House · UT-04
    Mike Kennedy (R)41.7
    JLJonny Larsen32.9
    R +8.81 poll →
  41. CA-07House · CA-07
    Doris Matsui49.0
    MVMai Vang39.0
    Matsui +10.01 poll →
  42. CA-22House · CA-22
    RVRandy Villegas (D)54.0
    David Valadao44.0
    D +10.01 poll →
  43. NC-01House · NC-01
    Don Davis51.0
    LBLaurie Buckhout (R)41.0
    Davis +10.01 poll →
  44. MT-02House · MT-02
    Troy Downing (R)29.0
    BMBrian Miller18.0
    R +11.01 poll →
  45. TX-28House · TX-28
    Henry Cuellar (D)45.0
    Tano Tijerina34.0
    D +11.01 poll →
  46. NC-11House · NC-11
    JAJamie Ager (D)56.0
    JBJennifer Balkcom (R)43.0
    D +13.01 poll →
  47. RI-02House · RI-02
    Seth Magaziner (D)52.0
    VMVictor Mellor39.0
    D +13.01 poll →
  48. CA-01House · CA-01
    MMMike McGuire54.0
    James Gallagher (R)40.0
    McGuire +14.01 poll →
  49. NM-03House · NM-03
    Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)53.0
    MZMartin Zamora39.0
    D +14.01 poll →
  50. NH-02House · NH-02
    Maggie Goodlander (D)53.3
    Lily Tang Williams38.0
    D +15.33 polls →
  51. NM-01House · NM-01
    Melanie Stansbury53.0
    NONdidiamaka Okpareke35.0
    Stansbury +18.01 poll →
  52. UT-03House · UT-03
    Celeste Maloy (R)44.5
    KSKent S. Udell26.4
    R +18.11 poll →
  53. RI-01House · RI-01
    Gabe Amo (D)52.0
    KKKellie Keenan33.0
    D +19.01 poll →
  54. IL-04House · IL-04
    PGPatty Garcia34.0
    LCLupe Castillo15.0
    Garcia +19.01 poll →
  55. SD-01House · SD-01
    MJMarty Jackley60.0
    NGNikki Gronli32.0
    Jackley +28.01 poll →
  56. ME-01House · ME-01
    Chellie Pingree (D)65.0
    RRRon Russell32.0
    D +33.01 poll →
  57. VT-01House · VT-01
    Becca Balint (D)66.0
    GMGerald Malloy30.0
    D +36.01 poll →
  58. UT-01House · UT-01
    BMBen McAdams62.7
    RORiley Owen21.2
    McAdams +41.51 poll →

All 435 seats are up. The rows above show qualifying polls in our feed. A missing poll does not establish that nobody has polled the district or that the seat is safe.

Find any House district

Alaska 1
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Alabama 7
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Arkansas 4
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Arizona 9
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California 52
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Colorado 8
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Connecticut 5
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Delaware 1
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Florida 28
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Georgia 14
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Hawaii 2
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Iowa 4
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Idaho 2
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Illinois 17
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Indiana 9
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Kansas 4
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Kentucky 6
  • KY-01 →
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  • KY-06 →
Louisiana 6
  • LA-01 →
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Massachusetts 9
  • MA-01 →
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Maryland 8
  • MD-01 →
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  • MD-08 →
Maine 2
  • ME-01 →
  • ME-02 →
Michigan 13
  • MI-01 →
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Minnesota 8
  • MN-01 →
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Missouri 8
  • MO-01 →
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Mississippi 4
  • MS-01 →
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Montana 2
  • MT-01 →
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North Carolina 14
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  • NC-14 →
North Dakota 1
  • ND-01 →
Nebraska 3
  • NE-01 →
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  • NE-03 →
New Hampshire 2
  • NH-01 →
  • NH-02 →
New Jersey 12
  • NJ-01 →
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New Mexico 3
  • NM-01 →
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Nevada 4
  • NV-01 →
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  • NV-04 →
New York 26
  • NY-01 →
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Ohio 15
  • OH-01 →
  • OH-02 →
  • OH-03 →
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  • OH-14 →
  • OH-15 →
Oklahoma 5
  • OK-01 →
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  • OK-05 →
Oregon 6
  • OR-01 →
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  • OR-06 →
Pennsylvania 17
  • PA-01 →
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  • PA-03 →
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Rhode Island 2
  • RI-01 →
  • RI-02 →
South Carolina 7
  • SC-01 →
  • SC-02 →
  • SC-03 →
  • SC-04 →
  • SC-05 →
  • SC-06 →
  • SC-07 →
South Dakota 1
  • SD-01 →
Tennessee 9
  • TN-01 →
  • TN-02 →
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  • TN-04 →
  • TN-05 →
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  • TN-08 →
  • TN-09 →
Texas 38
  • TX-01 →
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Utah 4
  • UT-01 →
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  • UT-04 →
Virginia 11
  • VA-01 →
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  • VA-11 →
Vermont 1
  • VT-01 →
Washington 10
  • WA-01 →
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  • WA-10 →
Wisconsin 8
  • WI-01 →
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  • WI-05 →
  • WI-06 →
  • WI-07 →
  • WI-08 →
West Virginia 2
  • WV-01 →
  • WV-02 →
Wyoming 1
  • WY-01 →

How these numbers are built

Averages cover the current top-two matchup only, from nonpartisan public polls, latest poll per pollster, equally weighted. Campaign-internal and partisan-sponsored polls are excluded. State and district polling is sparse and carries wider error than national averages — these are averages of published results, not forecasts.

Polling data via the VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed averages; VoteHub does not endorse them. Seat context is maintained by hand in the newsroom and dated on each dashboard refresh.

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