Alaska Senate race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Alaska election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
Alaska Senate race
Alaska · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
Photograph credits
Mary Peltola, archival congressional portrait. U.S. Congress Biographical Directory.
D +1.3 across 6 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Candidates on the official list
- Gerald L. HeikesRegistered Republican
- Mary PeltolaRegistered Democrat
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.No party designation shown
- Dan S. SullivanRegistered Republican
November 3 official sample ballot
Alaska Division of Elections · Reviewed Sep 15, 2026
Named candidates from the statewide contests on the District 1 sample; ballot order rotates. Party registration does not imply endorsement. Write-in candidates are not listed here.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | Oct 30, 2026 | 610 likely voters | Mary Peltola 48% · Dan Sullivan 46% |
| Data for Progress ↗ | Oct 16, 2026 | 671 likely voters | Mary Peltola 51% · Dan Sullivan 49% |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | Sep 30, 2026 | 758 likely voters | Mary Peltola 47.2% · Dan Sullivan 47.8% |
| co/efficient ↗ | Sep 17, 2026 | 799 likely voters | Mary Peltola 46% · Dan Sullivan 49% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research ↗ | Sep 11, 2026 | 800 likely voters | Mary Peltola 53% · Dan Sullivan 47% |
| Alaska Survey Research ↗ | Aug 23, 2026 | 1,495 likely voters | Mary Peltola 50.6% · Dan Sullivan 49.4% |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.