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The Baseline · Election coverage

The 2026 midterms

The races for Congress, the latest polls, and the dates voters need.

Race directoryNational pollsVoting guide
0races calledResults by race →
Closest polled
Senate races
JTIowaHinson / TurekLatest poll: Nov 1, 2026AASouth CarolinaGraham / AndrewsLatest poll: Oct 30, 2026AlaskaPeltola / SullivanLatest poll: Oct 30, 2026
Photograph credits

Current officeholders: official public portraits. Additional candidate photographs: Mary Peltola, archival congressional portrait. U.S. Congress Biographical Directory.; Sherrod Brown, archival congressional portrait. U.S. Congress Biographical Directory.; Mike Rogers of Michigan, archival congressional portrait. U.S. Congress Biographical Directory.; Abdul El-Sayed campaign photograph, Abdul for Senate.; Roy Cooper, NCDOTcommunications (2018), cropped version from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0; Michael Whatley, Gage Skidmore (2024), crop by TaurusEmerald via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0; James Talarico, photo by Larry D. Moore, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; Ken Paxton, photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0; Troy Jackson, photo by ArenLeBrun, via Wikimedia Commons.; Angie Nixon, photo by Florida House of Representatives, via Wikimedia Commons.; Todd Achilles, photo by DL a.k.a. LibertyDad, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; Kurt Alme, photo by United States Department of Justice, via Wikimedia Commons.; Seth Bodnar, photo by Todd Goodrich, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Hallie Shoffner, photo by Ark. Agricultural Experiment Station, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Bert Mizusawa, photo by U.S. Army, via Wikimedia Commons.; John Deaton, photo by Jeff Dranetz, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 3.0; Vivek Ramaswamy, photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Amy Acton, photo by United States Air Force, via Wikimedia Commons.; Keisha Lance Bottoms, photo by Senate Democrats, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0; Christine Drazan, photo by Oregon State University, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0; David Jolly, photo by U.S. House of Representatives, via Wikimedia Commons.; Gina Hinojosa, photo by RRC1701, via Wikimedia Commons.; David Crowley, photo by LaShawnda Jones, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Rob Sand, photo by Rob Sand for Iowa, via Wikimedia Commons.; Zach Lahn, photo by Aunger67, via Wikimedia Commons.; Lisa Demuth, photo by Lisa Demuth for Governor, via Wikimedia Commons.; Amanda Janoo, photo by Town Meeting TV, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; Hannah Pingree, photo by Hannah Pingree for Governor, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; Jerri Green, photo by Zach Kinslow, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; Deb Haaland, photo by Department of the Interior, via Wikimedia Commons.; Ryan Fazio, photo by James Naleski, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Xavier Becerra, photo by Office of the Attorney General of California, via Wikimedia Commons.; Steve Hilton, photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0; Marni von Wilpert, photo by City of San Diego, via Wikimedia Commons.; Jim Desmond, photo by County of San Diego, via Wikimedia Commons.; Chris Jones, photo by BloodshotRollinRed This image has an extracted file : Chris , via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Richard Pan, photo by Dr. Richard Pan from Sacramento, CA, USA, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0; Cait Conley, photo by DHSgov, via Wikimedia Commons.; Tano Tijerina, photo by E. R. Softwood, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0; Lily Tang Williams, photo by AI News, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 3.0; Maura Healy, photo by Zgreenblatt, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 3.0; Rick Jackson, photo by Cherie Martin, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; John E. Sununu, official U.S. Senate portrait, via Wikimedia Commons.; Jocelyn Benson, photo by Ariel Weis, via Wikimedia Commons.; Doug Jones, photo by Office of Nomination Advisor for Legislative Affairs Doug Jo, via Wikimedia Commons.

National polling

The national picture

Checked every 6 hours · field dates below
U.S. House · generic ballot

The vote for Congress

Latest field date: Nov 2, 2026

Democratic49.8%
Republican42.6%

Latest nonpartisan poll per pollster, past 120 days. Equal-weight average, not a forecast.

Presidential approval

Trump’s job approval

Latest field date: Oct 6, 2026
The newest qualifying poll is 29 days old.

Approve38.3%
Disapprove58.7%

Latest nonpartisan poll per pollster, past 120 days. Polls differ in sample and method.

Generic ballot · past 10 months
DemocraticRepublicandots: individual polls · lines: 30-day trailing average
32364044485256FebAprJunAugOctMorning Consult · Jan 11 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Jan 11 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Jan 12 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Jan 12 · Republican 43%YouGov · Jan 12 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Jan 12 · Republican 40%CNN/SSRS · Jan 12 · Democratic 46%CNN/SSRS · Jan 12 · Republican 41%Ipsos · Jan 13 · Democratic 40%Ipsos · Jan 13 · Republican 38%Impact Research/National Research · Jan 13 · Democratic 47%Impact Research/National Research · Jan 13 · Republican 43%Research Co. · Jan 15 · Democratic 42%Research Co. · Jan 15 · Republican 36%The New York Times/Siena College · Jan 17 · Democratic 48%The New York Times/Siena College · Jan 17 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Jan 18 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Jan 18 · Republican 43%YouGov · Jan 19 · Democratic 43%YouGov · Jan 19 · Republican 39%Emerson College · Jan 19 · Democratic 48.1%Emerson College · Jan 19 · Republican 41.7%Verasight · Jan 20 · Democratic 51%Verasight · Jan 20 · Republican 43%KFF · Jan 20 · Democratic 49%KFF · Jan 20 · Republican 42%Clarity Campaign Labs · Jan 22 · Democratic 51%Clarity Campaign Labs · Jan 22 · Republican 42%Quantus Insights · Jan 22 · Democratic 47.2%Quantus Insights · Jan 22 · Republican 40.7%Big Data Poll · Jan 24 · Democratic 48.2%Big Data Poll · Jan 24 · Republican 44.2%Morning Consult · Jan 25 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Jan 25 · Republican 43%Ipsos · Jan 25 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Jan 25 · Republican 37%YouGov · Jan 26 · Democratic 43%YouGov · Jan 26 · Republican 38%Focaldata · Jan 26 · Democratic 39%Focaldata · Jan 26 · Republican 35%Echelon Insights · Jan 26 · Democratic 49%Echelon Insights · Jan 26 · Republican 44%Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Jan 26 · Democratic 52%Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Jan 26 · Republican 46%The Argument/Verasight · Jan 27 · Democratic 55%The Argument/Verasight · Jan 27 · Republican 45%McLaughlin & Associates · Jan 27 · Democratic 46%McLaughlin & Associates · Jan 27 · Republican 44%Cygnal · Jan 28 · Democratic 48%Cygnal · Jan 28 · Republican 44%Marquette University Law School · Jan 28 · Democratic 52%Marquette University Law School · Jan 28 · Republican 45%HarrisX/Harris Poll · Jan 29 · Democratic 52%HarrisX/Harris Poll · Jan 29 · Republican 48%TIPP Insights · Jan 29 · Democratic 45%TIPP Insights · Jan 29 · Republican 42%Public Policy Polling · Jan 30 · Democratic 48%Public Policy Polling · Jan 30 · Republican 41%Morning Consult · Feb 1 · Democratic 47%Morning Consult · Feb 1 · Republican 42%YouGov · Feb 2 · Democratic 44%YouGov · Feb 2 · Republican 40%Cygnal · Feb 4 · Democratic 48%Cygnal · Feb 4 · Republican 44%John Zogby Strategies · Feb 5 · Democratic 47%John Zogby Strategies · Feb 5 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · Feb 8 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Feb 8 · Republican 42%YouGov · Feb 9 · Democratic 44%YouGov · Feb 9 · Republican 38%Morning Consult · Feb 9 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Feb 9 · Republican 41%Focaldata · Feb 10 · Democratic 51%Focaldata · Feb 10 · Republican 44%The Argument/Verasight · Feb 10 · Democratic 53%The Argument/Verasight · Feb 10 · Republican 47%RMG Research · Feb 12 · Democratic 45%RMG Research · Feb 12 · Republican 47%YouGov · Feb 12 · Democratic 44%YouGov · Feb 12 · Republican 41%Quantus Insights · Feb 13 · Democratic 48%Quantus Insights · Feb 13 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · Feb 15 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Feb 15 · Republican 42%YouGov · Feb 16 · Democratic 47%YouGov · Feb 16 · Republican 40%Ipsos · Feb 16 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Feb 16 · Republican 37%Ipsos · Feb 17 · Democratic 47%Ipsos · Feb 17 · Republican 45%Big Data Poll · Feb 18 · Democratic 50%Big Data Poll · Feb 18 · Republican 41.3%Bowling Green State University/YouGov · Feb 18 · Democratic 49%Bowling Green State University/YouGov · Feb 18 · Republican 41%Change Research · Feb 18 · Democratic 43%Change Research · Feb 18 · Republican 40%Talker Research · Feb 19 · Democratic 42%Talker Research · Feb 19 · Republican 36%Verasight · Feb 20 · Democratic 52%Verasight · Feb 20 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · Feb 22 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Feb 22 · Republican 42%Emerson College · Feb 22 · Democratic 50.4%Emerson College · Feb 22 · Republican 42.4%Echelon Insights · Feb 23 · Democratic 50%Echelon Insights · Feb 23 · Republican 46%Ipsos · Feb 23 · Democratic 40%Ipsos · Feb 23 · Republican 38%YouGov · Feb 23 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Feb 23 · Republican 41%Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov · Feb 23 · Democratic 42%Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov · Feb 23 · Republican 37%HarrisX/Harris · Feb 26 · Democratic 50%HarrisX/Harris · Feb 26 · Republican 50%YouGov · Feb 27 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Feb 27 · Republican 40%TIPP Insights · Feb 27 · Democratic 46%TIPP Insights · Feb 27 · Republican 44%The Public Sentiment Institute · Feb 28 · Democratic 50%The Public Sentiment Institute · Feb 28 · Republican 41%YouGov · Mar 2 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Mar 2 · Republican 41%Quantus Insights · Mar 3 · Democratic 48%Quantus Insights · Mar 3 · Republican 42%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Mar 3 · Democratic 50%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Mar 3 · Republican 44%Marist University · Mar 4 · Democratic 53%Marist University · Mar 4 · Republican 44%Cygnal · Mar 4 · Democratic 49%Cygnal · Mar 4 · Republican 45%RMG Research · Mar 5 · Democratic 46%RMG Research · Mar 5 · Republican 46%Noble Predictive Insights · Mar 5 · Democratic 44%Noble Predictive Insights · Mar 5 · Republican 43%Clarity Campaign Labs · Mar 7 · Democratic 47%Clarity Campaign Labs · Mar 7 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Mar 8 · Democratic 47%Morning Consult · Mar 8 · Republican 43%YouGov · Mar 9 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Mar 9 · Republican 42%McLaughlin & Associates · Mar 9 · Democratic 47%McLaughlin & Associates · Mar 9 · Republican 43%Focaldata · Mar 10 · Democratic 48%Focaldata · Mar 10 · Republican 42%Change Research · Mar 12 · Democratic 47%Change Research · Mar 12 · Republican 41%Morning Consult · Mar 15 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Mar 15 · Republican 42%Survey 160 · Mar 15 · Democratic 48%Survey 160 · Mar 15 · Republican 38%Echelon Insights · Mar 16 · Democratic 49%Echelon Insights · Mar 16 · Republican 44%Morning Consult · Mar 16 · Democratic 48%Morning Consult · Mar 16 · Republican 40%YouGov · Mar 16 · Democratic 43%YouGov · Mar 16 · Republican 41%Emerson College · Mar 17 · Democratic 49.2%Emerson College · Mar 17 · Republican 41.5%The Argument/Verasight · Mar 17 · Democratic 54%The Argument/Verasight · Mar 17 · Republican 46%Quantus Insights · Mar 18 · Democratic 47%Quantus Insights · Mar 18 · Republican 42%John Zogby Strategies · Mar 18 · Democratic 46%John Zogby Strategies · Mar 18 · Republican 46%Ipsos · Mar 19 · Democratic 40%Ipsos · Mar 19 · Republican 37%Impact Research/BSP Research · Mar 20 · Democratic 45%Impact Research/BSP Research · Mar 20 · Republican 41%Morning Consult · Mar 22 · Democratic 47%Morning Consult · Mar 22 · Republican 42%Quinnipiac University · Mar 23 · Democratic 51%Quinnipiac University · Mar 23 · Republican 40%Yale Youth Poll · Mar 23 · Democratic 46%Yale Youth Poll · Mar 23 · Republican 44%Big Data Poll · Mar 24 · Democratic 48%Big Data Poll · Mar 24 · Republican 40%Quantus Insights · Mar 26 · Democratic 47%Quantus Insights · Mar 26 · Republican 41.3%HarrisX/Harris · Mar 26 · Democratic 52%HarrisX/Harris · Mar 26 · Republican 48%Morning Consult · Mar 29 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Mar 29 · Republican 42%YouGov · Mar 30 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Mar 30 · Republican 39%CNN/SSRS · Mar 30 · Democratic 48%CNN/SSRS · Mar 30 · Republican 42%University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov · Mar 30 · Democratic 38%University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov · Mar 30 · Republican 35%Cygnal · Apr 3 · Democratic 49%Cygnal · Apr 3 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Apr 5 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Apr 5 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · Apr 6 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Apr 6 · Republican 42%YouGov · Apr 6 · Democratic 44%YouGov · Apr 6 · Republican 42%Change Research · Apr 7 · Democratic 47%Change Research · Apr 7 · Republican 42%RMG Research · Apr 9 · Democratic 49%RMG Research · Apr 9 · Republican 44%Morning Consult · Apr 9 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Apr 9 · Republican 42%Echelon Insights · Apr 9 · Democratic 50%Echelon Insights · Apr 9 · Republican 45%Tavern Research · Apr 9 · Democratic 44%Tavern Research · Apr 9 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Apr 12 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Apr 12 · Republican 42%YouGov · Apr 13 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Apr 13 · Republican 40%Survey 160 · Apr 13 · Democratic 47%Survey 160 · Apr 13 · Republican 37%Verasight · Apr 14 · Democratic 50%Verasight · Apr 14 · Republican 43%McLaughlin & Associates · Apr 15 · Democratic 47%McLaughlin & Associates · Apr 15 · Republican 43%GBAO Strategies · Apr 15 · Democratic 48%GBAO Strategies · Apr 15 · Republican 40%Marquette University Law School · Apr 16 · Democratic 53%Marquette University Law School · Apr 16 · Republican 43%John Zogby Strategies · Apr 18 · Democratic 48%John Zogby Strategies · Apr 18 · Republican 44%Morning Consult · Apr 19 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Apr 19 · Republican 42%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Apr 19 · Democratic 49%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Apr 19 · Republican 45%KFF · Apr 19 · Democratic 43%KFF · Apr 19 · Republican 34%Morning Consult · Apr 20 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Apr 20 · Republican 42%YouGov · Apr 20 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Apr 20 · Republican 40%Ipsos · Apr 20 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Apr 20 · Republican 38%Echelon Insights · Apr 20 · Democratic 50%Echelon Insights · Apr 20 · Republican 44%Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Apr 20 · Democratic 52%Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · Apr 20 · Republican 47%Leger · Apr 20 · Democratic 52%Leger · Apr 20 · Republican 42%Quantus Insights · Apr 23 · Democratic 47%Quantus Insights · Apr 23 · Republican 42%The Argument/Verasight · Apr 23 · Democratic 53%The Argument/Verasight · Apr 23 · Republican 47%Clarity Campaign Labs · Apr 24 · Democratic 50%Clarity Campaign Labs · Apr 24 · Republican 45%Morning Consult · Apr 26 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Apr 26 · Republican 42%HarrisX/Harris · Apr 26 · Democratic 50%HarrisX/Harris · Apr 26 · Republican 50%Emerson College · Apr 26 · Democratic 50.3%Emerson College · Apr 26 · Republican 40.2%Morning Consult · Apr 27 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · Apr 27 · Republican 42%YouGov · Apr 27 · Democratic 46%YouGov · Apr 27 · Republican 41%Ipsos · Apr 27 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Apr 27 · Republican 37%Public Opinion Strategies · Apr 27 · Democratic 44%Public Opinion Strategies · Apr 27 · Republican 41%Big Data Poll · Apr 28 · Democratic 50.4%Big Data Poll · Apr 28 · Republican 39.4%Ipsos · Apr 28 · Democratic 49%Ipsos · Apr 28 · Republican 44%Marist University · Apr 30 · Democratic 52%Marist University · Apr 30 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · May 3 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · May 3 · Republican 43%YouGov · May 4 · Democratic 44%YouGov · May 4 · Republican 41%CNN/SSRS · May 4 · Democratic 45%CNN/SSRS · May 4 · Republican 42%HarrisX · May 5 · Democratic 48%HarrisX · May 5 · Republican 46%Focaldata · May 5 · Democratic 51.862%Focaldata · May 5 · Republican 44.4652%RMG Research · May 6 · Democratic 50%RMG Research · May 6 · Republican 41%Cygnal · May 6 · Democratic 48.5%Cygnal · May 6 · Republican 42.4%AtlasIntel · May 7 · Democratic 54.6%AtlasIntel · May 7 · Republican 40.1%Change Research · May 10 · Democratic 45%Change Research · May 10 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · May 10 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · May 10 · Republican 42%Ipsos · May 11 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · May 11 · Republican 35%YouGov · May 11 · Democratic 45%YouGov · May 11 · Republican 40%The New York Times/Siena University · May 15 · Democratic 49.5%The New York Times/Siena University · May 15 · Republican 39.1%YouGov · May 15 · Democratic 45%YouGov · May 15 · Republican 40%Morning Consult · May 17 · Democratic 47%Morning Consult · May 17 · Republican 41%Ipsos · May 18 · Democratic 39%Ipsos · May 18 · Republican 38%Echelon Insights · May 18 · Democratic 51%Echelon Insights · May 18 · Republican 43%YouGov · May 18 · Democratic 46%YouGov · May 18 · Republican 43%Quinnipiac University · May 18 · Democratic 50%Quinnipiac University · May 18 · Republican 39%Data for Progress · May 18 · Democratic 51%Data for Progress · May 18 · Republican 43%Impact Research/National Research · May 18 · Democratic 48%Impact Research/National Research · May 18 · Republican 40%McLaughlin & Associates · May 18 · Democratic 46%McLaughlin & Associates · May 18 · Republican 42%The Rainey Center · May 18 · Democratic 45%The Rainey Center · May 18 · Republican 43%Bedrock Polling · May 18 · Democratic 45%Bedrock Polling · May 18 · Republican 43%Verasight · May 19 · Democratic 51%Verasight · May 19 · Republican 43%Verasight/Morris Predictive Insights · May 20 · Democratic 52%Verasight/Morris Predictive Insights · May 20 · Republican 41%Rasmussen Reports · May 20 · Democratic 47%Rasmussen Reports · May 20 · Republican 41%John Zogby Strategies · May 22 · Democratic 49%John Zogby Strategies · May 22 · Republican 42%Morning Consult · May 24 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · May 24 · Republican 42%Emerson College · May 25 · Democratic 49.8%Emerson College · May 25 · Republican 41.3%Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov · May 26 · Democratic 41%Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov · May 26 · Republican 37%YouGov · May 26 · Democratic 46%YouGov · May 26 · Republican 41%Marquette University Law School · May 26 · Democratic 49%Marquette University Law School · May 26 · Republican 48%Big Data Poll · May 27 · Democratic 50.3%Big Data Poll · May 27 · Republican 39.4%TIPP Insights · May 28 · Democratic 46%TIPP Insights · May 28 · Republican 41%HarrisX/Harris · May 31 · Democratic 51%HarrisX/Harris · May 31 · Republican 49%Morning Consult · May 31 · Democratic 45%Morning Consult · May 31 · Republican 42%YouGov · Jun 1 · Democratic 46%YouGov · Jun 1 · Republican 42%Focaldata · Jun 1 · Democratic 48%Focaldata · Jun 1 · Republican 43%Quantus Insights · Jun 2 · Democratic 47%Quantus Insights · Jun 2 · Republican 42%The Bullfinch Group · Jun 2 · Democratic 42%The Bullfinch Group · Jun 2 · Republican 36%The Argument/Verasight · Jun 3 · Democratic 53%The Argument/Verasight · Jun 3 · Republican 47%Cygnal · Jun 3 · Democratic 49%Cygnal · Jun 3 · Republican 44%RMG Research · Jun 4 · Democratic 49%RMG Research · Jun 4 · Republican 45%Noble Predictive Insights · Jun 4 · Democratic 47%Noble Predictive Insights · Jun 4 · Republican 41%Clarity Campaign Labs · Jun 5 · Democratic 48%Clarity Campaign Labs · Jun 5 · Republican 45%Research Co. · Jun 6 · Democratic 38%Research Co. · Jun 6 · Republican 33%Morning Consult · Jun 7 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Jun 7 · Republican 42%HarrisX · Jun 7 · Democratic 46%HarrisX · Jun 7 · Republican 45%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Jun 7 · Democratic 49%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies · Jun 7 · Republican 44%YouGov · Jun 8 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Jun 8 · Republican 41%Ipsos · Jun 8 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Jun 8 · Republican 37%Emerson College · Jun 8 · Democratic 50.3%Emerson College · Jun 8 · Republican 39.5%The Public Sentiment Institute · Jun 13 · Democratic 50%The Public Sentiment Institute · Jun 13 · Republican 41%Echelon Insights · Jun 14 · Democratic 50%Echelon Insights · Jun 14 · Republican 44%Morning Consult · Jun 14 · Democratic 45.8%Morning Consult · Jun 14 · Republican 41.9%Ipsos · Jun 15 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Jun 15 · Republican 38%YouGov · Jun 15 · Democratic 46%YouGov · Jun 15 · Republican 44%Marquette University Law School · Jun 15 · Democratic 53%Marquette University Law School · Jun 15 · Republican 45%The Bullfinch Group · Jun 16 · Democratic 44%The Bullfinch Group · Jun 16 · Republican 36%Quantus Insights · Jun 17 · Democratic 47%Quantus Insights · Jun 17 · Republican 43%YouGov · Jun 22 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Jun 22 · Republican 43%Ipsos · Jun 22 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Jun 22 · Republican 36%Echelon Insights · Jun 22 · Democratic 51%Echelon Insights · Jun 22 · Republican 45%Verasight · Jun 22 · Democratic 50%Verasight · Jun 22 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Jun 22 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Jun 22 · Republican 42%Big Data Poll · Jun 28 · Democratic 50.2%Big Data Poll · Jun 28 · Republican 41%YouGov · Jun 29 · Democratic 45%YouGov · Jun 29 · Republican 42%Focaldata · Jun 30 · Democratic 50%Focaldata · Jun 30 · Republican 43%Morning Consult · Jul 12 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Jul 12 · Republican 43%Noble Predictive Insights · Aug 16 · Democratic 47%Noble Predictive Insights · Aug 16 · Republican 42%Ipsos · Aug 24 · Democratic 41%Ipsos · Aug 24 · Republican 35%YouGov · Aug 24 · Democratic 46%YouGov · Aug 24 · Republican 40%Morning Consult · Sep 6 · Democratic 46%Morning Consult · Sep 6 · Republican 42%YouGov · Sep 8 · Democratic 49%YouGov · Sep 8 · Republican 38%The Argument/Verasight · Sep 22 · Democratic 55%The Argument/Verasight · Sep 22 · Republican 45%HarrisX/Harris · Sep 28 · Democratic 51%HarrisX/Harris · Sep 28 · Republican 49%YouGov - CBS News · Oct 2 · Democratic 54%YouGov - CBS News · Oct 2 · Republican 45%Pew Research Center · Oct 4 · Democratic 44%Pew Research Center · Oct 4 · Republican 36%Ipsos · Nov 2 · Democratic 52%Ipsos · Nov 2 · Republican 44%D 48.0R 40.0
Each dot is one nonpartisan public poll from the VoteHub feed (one result per pollster per field date; where a pollster releases multiple versions, the larger two-party total is used). Lines are 30-day trailing averages computed by The Baseline. Percentages, not seat projections.
View the congressional source polls
PollsterField dateSampleResult
Ipsos ↗Nov 2, 20261,212 likely votersDem 52% · Rep 44%
Pew Research Center ↗Oct 4, 20263,917 registered votersDem 44% · Rep 36%
YouGov - CBS News ↗Oct 2, 20261,572 likely votersDem 54% · Rep 45%
HarrisX/Harris ↗Sep 28, 2026— likely votersDem 51% · Rep 49%
The Argument/Verasight ↗Sep 22, 2026— likely votersDem 55% · Rep 45%
YouGov ↗Sep 8, 20261,015 likely votersDem 49% · Rep 38%
Morning Consult ↗Sep 6, 20262,203 registered votersDem 46% · Rep 42%
Noble Predictive Insights ↗Aug 16, 20262,533 registered votersDem 47% · Rep 42%
View the presidential approval source polls
PollsterField dateSampleResult
RMG Research ↗Oct 6, 20262,000 registered votersApprove 43% · Disapprove 56%
Pew Research Center ↗Oct 4, 20265,062 adultsApprove 30% · Disapprove 68%
TIPP Insights ↗Aug 28, 20261,461 adultsApprove 38% · Not Sure 10%
Ipsos ↗Aug 24, 2026951 registered votersApprove 37% · Disapprove 63%
YouGov ↗Aug 24, 20261,379 registered votersApprove 40% · Disapprove 57%
Noble Predictive Insights ↗Aug 16, 20262,533 registered votersApprove 42% · Disapprove 56%

Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the simple displayed averages; VoteHub does not endorse them.

Race by race

Senate and governor races

Closest polled races first · nonpartisan polls from the last 180 days · Every race we track →
Senate today53 R · 45 D · 2 IEffective split 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for outright control at 51 (Republicans hold the tie-breaking vice presidency). Four seats on the 2026 ballot are held by appointees: FL (Moody), OH (Husted), OK (Armstrong, not running) and SC (Graham Nordone). Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 seats up this year.
House today218 R · 214 D · 1 I · 2 vacantCurrent voting House membership: 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and independent Kevin Kiley. Vacancies: FL-20 and TX-23. Everton Blair (GA-13) and Aisha Wahab (CA-14) have taken office. Source: Clerk of the House member directory and the current congressional roster, checked September 15, 2026.

U.S. Senate

  1. IowaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Joni Ernst (R) is not running
    Ashley Hinson (R)45.9
    JTJosh Turek (D)45.6
    Even12 polls →
  2. South CarolinaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Darline Graham Nordone (R)
    Darline Graham (R)47.2
    AAAnnie Andrews (D)46.1
    R +1.14 polls →
  3. AlaskaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Dan Sullivan (R)
    Mary Peltola (D)49.3
    Dan Sullivan (R)48.0
    D +1.36 polls →
  4. NebraskaU.S. SenateIncumbent: Pete Ricketts (R)
    Pete Ricketts (R)48.5
    DODan Osborn46.5
    R +2.02 polls →
  5. MinnesotaU.S. SenateOpen seat — Tina Smith (D) is not running
    PFPeggy Flanagan (D)47.2
    MTMichele Tafoya (R)44.5
    D +2.75 polls →
  6. TexasU.S. SenateOpen seat — John Cornyn (R) is not running
    James Talarico (D)49.4
    Ken Paxton (R)46.1
    D +3.312 polls →
All 27 polled Senate races →

Governor

  1. GeorgiaGovernorOpen seat — Brian Kemp (R) is not running
    Rick Jackson (R)48.0
    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)47.9
    Even10 polls →
  2. KansasGovernorOpen seat — Laura Kelly (D) is not running
    TMTy Masterson (R)49.1
    CHCindy Holscher (D)48.2
    R +0.97 polls →
  3. NevadaGovernorIncumbent: Joe Lombardo (R)
    AFAaron Ford (D)43.4
    Joe Lombardo (R)41.7
    D +1.73 polls →
  4. OregonGovernorIncumbent: Tina Kotek (D)
    Tina Kotek (D)46.0
    Christine Drazan (R)44.0
    D +2.01 poll →
  5. TexasGovernorIncumbent: Greg Abbott (R)
    Greg Abbott (R)49.3
    Gina Hinojosa (D)46.9
    R +2.412 polls →
  6. VermontGovernorIncumbent: Phil Scott (R)
    Amanda Janoo (D)48.5
    Phil Scott (R)46.0
    D +2.52 polls →
All 31 polled Governor races →

House districts with fresh polling

  • AR-02Even
  • FL-22Even
  • WA-03Braun +1.0
  • NY-17Lawler +1.5
  • NY-21Constantino +1.7
  • MO-02Wellman +2.0
  • AL-02Marques +2.0
  • TX-35Garcia +2.0
  • AZ-02Nez +2.0
  • MN-01Johnson +2.0
All 58 polled House districts →

Averages cover the current top-two matchup only, from nonpartisan public polls, latest poll per pollster, equally weighted. Race pages list every poll counted. Sparse local polling means wider error than national averages.

The Baseline pulse

What readers want checked

No reader question is open right now.Previous responses do not represent the electorate.
Midterm watch

Latest political reporting

Open the full news desk →
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Nov 4, 2026kffhealthnews.org

Democrats’ Election Rout Is Poised To Dramatically Reorder Federal Health Policy

Nov 4, 2026npr.org

Navajo voters hop tractors, make extraordinary efforts to vote after widespread flooding

Nov 4, 2026insideclimatenews.org

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Sen. Amy Klobuchar wins Minnesota governor's race, CBS News projects

Nov 4, 2026
A neutral standard, not a false balance

We follow the evidence wherever it lands.

The Baseline does not force an equal number of negative verdicts for each party. It applies one published standard to every claim, links primary evidence, labels uncertainty, and keeps reader surveys separate from representative polling.

See the full method →
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