Texas Senate race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Texas election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
Texas Senate race
Texas · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
Photograph credits
James Talarico, photo by Larry D. Moore, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0; Ken Paxton, photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0
D +3.3 across 12 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | Nov 1, 2026 | 1,215 likely voters | James Talarico 50% · Ken Paxton 43% |
| ActiVote ↗ | Oct 28, 2026 | 400 likely voters | James Talarico 52.1% · Ken Paxton 47.9% |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | Oct 28, 2026 | 1,221 likely voters | Ken Paxton 49.4% · James Talarico 48.4% |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | Oct 27, 2026 | 923 likely voters | James Talarico 49% · Ken Paxton 43% |
| A2 Insights ↗ | Oct 27, 2026 | 631 likely voters | James Talarico 50.2% · Ken Paxton 47.2% |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗ | Oct 25, 2026 | 2,000 likely voters | James Talarico 49% · Ken Paxton 47% · Ted Brown 3% |
| YouGov ↗ | Oct 21, 2026 | 1,000 registered voters | James Talarico 50% · Ken Paxton 45% |
| VoteHub/Verasight ↗ | Oct 20, 2026 | 601 likely voters | James Talarico 47.6% · Ken Paxton 45.2% · Ted Brown 1.4% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Oct 19, 2026 | 1,398 likely voters |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.