Minnesota Senate raceAwaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Minnesota election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
Minnesota Senate race
Minnesota · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
D +2.7 across 5 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | Nov 1, 2026 | 2,133 likely voters | Peggy Flanagan 48% · Michele Tafoya 46% |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | Oct 30, 2026 | 1,200 likely voters | Peggy Flanagan 49% · Michele Tafoya 46% · Marisa Simonetti 1% |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | Oct 12, 2026 | 718 likely voters | Peggy Flanagan 45% · Michele Tafoya 42% · Marisa Simonetti 2% |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | Sep 30, 2026 | 622 likely voters | Peggy Flanagan 46% · Michele Tafoya 44% · Rebecca Whiting 5% |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | Sep 10, 2026 | 720 likely voters | Peggy Flanagan 48.2% · Michele Tafoya 44.4% |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.