Michigan Senate race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Michigan election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
Michigan Senate race
Michigan · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
Photograph credits
Mike Rogers of Michigan, archival congressional portrait. U.S. Congress Biographical Directory.; Abdul El-Sayed campaign photograph, Abdul for Senate.
D +4.5 across 12 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Candidates on the official list
- Abdul El-SayedDemocratic Party
- Mike RogersRepublican Party
- Lydia ChristensenLibertarian Party
- Tim LongU.S. Taxpayers Party
- Douglas P. MarshGreen Party
- Walter P. KristyNatural Law Party
Official general-election candidate listing
Michigan Department of State · Reviewed Sep 15, 2026
Named candidates on the official list at the review date. Disqualified filings are excluded. Check the election office for revisions and write-in candidates.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | Nov 1, 2026 | 1,011 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 53% · Mike Rogers 42% |
| YouGov ↗ | Oct 29, 2026 | 2,093 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 51% · Mike Rogers 47% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications ↗ | Oct 27, 2026 | 636 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 51% · Mike Rogers 44% · Lydia Christensen 1% |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | Oct 27, 2026 | 768 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 49% · Mike Rogers 42% |
| Michigan State University Department of Political Science/Verasight ↗ | Oct 23, 2026 | 1,383 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 50.5% · Mike Rogers 43.1% |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | Oct 22, 2026 | 1,200 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 46% |
| Glengariff Group, Inc. ↗ | Oct 22, 2026 | 600 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 51.4% · Mike Rogers 45.1% |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗ | Oct 19, 2026 | 836 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 48% · Mike Rogers 45.5% |
| Marist University ↗ |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.