MT-01 House raceAwaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Montana election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. House · MT-01Results Pre-election polling average
MT-01 House race
Montana
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
D +6.8 across 3 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings ↗ | Oct 21, 2026 | 287 adults | Aaron Flint 32% · Sam Forstag 49% · Nick Sheedy 4% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Oct 14, 2026 | 329 likely voters | Aaron Flint 46% · Sam Forstag 50% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling ↗ | Sep 24, 2026 | 314 likely voters | Aaron Flint 45.9% · Sam Forstag 45.4% · Nick Sheedy 5.4% |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.