Florida Senate race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Florida election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
Florida Senate race
Florida · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
R +6.2 across 10 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote ↗ | Oct 27, 2026 | 400 likely voters | Ashley Moody 53% · Angie Nixon 47% |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | Oct 23, 2026 | 515 likely voters | Ashley Moody 51% · Angie Nixon 43% · Neil Gillespie 3% |
| University of North Florida ↗ | Oct 19, 2026 | 1,414 likely voters | Ashley Moody 49% · Angie Nixon 45% |
| MDW ↗ | Oct 10, 2026 | 800 likely voters | Ashley Moody 48% · Angie Nixon 42% |
| St. Pete Polls ↗ | Oct 7, 2026 | 836 likely voters | Ashley Moody 47% · Angie Nixon 45% |
| Targoz Market Research ↗ | Oct 4, 2026 | 857 likely voters | Angie Nixon 42% · Ashley Moody 52% |
| Change Research ↗ | Sep 27, 2026 | 1,063 likely voters | Ashley Moody 48% · Angie Nixon 47% |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | Sep 21, 2026 | 600 likely voters | Ashley Moody 49.3% · Angie Nixon 41.8% · Neil Gillespie 2.4% |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗ |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.