Arkansas Senate race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Arkansas election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
Arkansas Senate race
Arkansas · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
Photograph credits
Hallie Shoffner, photo by Ark. Agricultural Experiment Station, via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 4.0
R +12.0 across 3 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College ↗ | Oct 13, 2026 | 709 likely voters | Tom Cotton 50% · Hallie Shoffner 41% · Jeff Wadlin 5% |
| Grayhouse ↗ | Oct 4, 2026 | 550 likely voters | Hallie Shoffner 40% · Tom Cotton 51% · Jeff Wadlin 4% |
| J.L. Partners ↗ | Aug 18, 2026 | 803 likely voters | Tom Cotton 51% · Hallie Shoffner 35% · Jeff Wadlin 4% |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.