Pennsylvania Governor race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: Pennsylvania election office ↗.
2026 · GovernorResults Pre-election polling average
Pennsylvania Governor race
Pennsylvania · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
D +21.8 across 7 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote ↗ | Oct 21, 2026 | 400 likely voters | Josh Shapiro 61.5% · Stacy Garrity 38.5% |
| Z to A Research ↗ | Oct 1, 2026 | 630 likely voters | Josh Shapiro 53% · Stacy Garrity 34% · Ken Krawchuk 3% |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | Sep 22, 2026 | 615 likely voters | Josh Shapiro 58% · Stacy Garrity 38% |
| Bravo Group ↗ | Sep 22, 2026 | 624 registered voters | Josh Shapiro 55% · Stacy Garrity 28% |
| Franklin & Marshall College ↗ | Aug 23, 2026 | 501 registered voters | Josh Shapiro 50% · Stacy Garrity 25% · Tony Dastra 2% |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research ↗ | Jun 14, 2026 | 546 registered voters | Josh Shapiro 50% · Stacy Garrity 28% |
| MAD Global Strategy ↗ | Jun 11, 2026 | 600 likely voters | Josh Shapiro 48% · Stacy Garrity 31% |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.