North Carolina Senate race
Awaiting a verified result
The Baseline has not added a verified result for this race. The election office may have newer totals. Closing times vary by state and locality. Official source: North Carolina election office ↗.
2026 · U.S. SenateResults Pre-election polling average
North Carolina Senate race
North Carolina · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
Photograph credits
Roy Cooper, NCDOTcommunications (2018), cropped version from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0; Michael Whatley, Gage Skidmore (2024), crop by TaurusEmerald via Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA 2.0
D +11.1 across 12 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Candidates on the official list
- Michael DublinGreen Party
- Roy CooperDemocratic Party
- Shannon W. BrayLibertarian Party
- Michael WhatleyRepublican Party
November 3 general-election candidate list
North Carolina State Board of Elections · Reviewed Sep 15, 2026
Ballot names from the September 2 statewide general-election list, reviewed September 15. Candidate lists can change; check the election office for revisions and write-in candidates.
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | Nov 1, 2026 | 1,459 likely voters | Roy Cooper 56.4% · Michael Whatley 41.5% |
| East Carolina University ↗ | Oct 29, 2026 | 1,041 likely voters | Roy Cooper 54% · Michael Whatley 45% · Shannon Bray 1% |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | Oct 25, 2026 | 722 likely voters | Roy Cooper 51.4% · Michael Whatley 42.8% · Shannon Bray 1.3% |
| ActiVote ↗ | Oct 20, 2026 | 400 likely voters | Roy Cooper 56.9% · Michael Whatley 43.1% |
| Harper Polling ↗ | Oct 20, 2026 | 600 likely voters | Roy Cooper 49% · Michael Whatley 39% · Shannon Bray 3% |
| High Point University Survey Research Center ↗ | Oct 20, 2026 | 620 likely voters | Roy Cooper 54% · Michael Whatley 40% · Shannon Bray 2% |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | Oct 11, 2026 | 643 likely voters | Roy Cooper 54% · Michael Whatley 40% |
| Elon University/YouGov ↗ | Oct 8, 2026 | 561 likely voters | Roy Cooper 52% · Michael Whatley 39% · Shannon Bray 2% |
| Big Data Poll ↗ |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.